Note also that current RSI is approaching an uptrend line
connecting the April 13 low and the May 27 low. If the RSI breaks down below
this support line with follow-through confirmations, the pair could decline
further to test previous lows around 1.0820, and then 1.0660, 1.0570 levels.
To the upside, if the price can hold the lower edge of the
large triangle range and the RSI uptrend line support remains intact, the pair
could trade higher to test 1.1280 level, and potentially to challenge the upper
edge of the large trading range. Note that the 200-day EMA is approaching the
upper edge of the large triangle range, which makes a potential resistance confluence
(gray circle on chart).
Support levels:
S1: lower edge of the triangle range
S2: 1.0820 (May 27 low)
S3: 1.0660 (April 21 low)
Resistance levels:
R1: 1.1280 (June 29 high)
R2: upper edge of the triangle range or 200-day EMA
R3: 1.1680 (January 21 high)
Upcoming event risks:
Wednesday July 8, All Day – Eurogroup
Meetings
Wednesday July 8, 7:30am – GBP Annual Budget Release
Wednesday July 8, 8:30am – CAD Building Permits m/m
Wednesday July 8, 2:00pm – USD FOMC Meeting Minutes
Wednesday July 8, 9:30pm – AUD Unemployment Rate
Wednesday July 8, 9:30pm – CNY CPI y/y
Thursday July 9, 7:00am – GBP Official Bank Rate
Thursday July 9, 8:30am – USD Unemployment Claims
Friday July 10, 8:30am – CAD Unemployment Rate
Friday July 10, 12:30pm – USD Fed Chair Yellen Speaks
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