AUD/USD under Pressure below 50-Day EMA

AUD/USD (daily chart as of June 16, 2015) has been under pressure below the 50-day EMA since late May. The pair had two attempts to break out of the 50-day EMA, but both failed (two gray rectangle shapes on chart). The first attempt occurred on March 23 and only lasted for three trading sessions. The second attempt occurred on April 28 and lasted for about 20 trading sessions under the pressure of 200-day EMA.

The 50-day EMA has been serving as an important resistance line since late October 2014 (red arrows from 1 to 8 on chart). Note that the pair is making higher lows after the first failed attempt to break out of its 50-day EMA. Note also that the RSI is forming lower lows, which is a potential positive reversal signal. If the pair breaks out of the 50-day EMA and the RSI rises above 50 level, price could trade higher to test the 200-day EMA again. 

To the downside, if the 50-day EMA remains as resistance, more downward pressure would be expecting for the following trading sessions. Price could decline to test the short-term uptrend line connecting the lows of April 2 and June 1 (bold red uptrend line on chart), and potentially to test again the 0.7530 level. 

Support levels:

S1: short-term uptrend line

S2: 0.7530 (April 2 low)

S3: 0.7450 (2009 May low)

Resistance levels:

R1: 50-day EMA

R2: 200-day EMA

R3: 0.8165 (May 13 high)

Upcoming event risks:

Wednesday June17, 2:00pm – USD FOMC Economic Projections, FOMC Statement, Federal Funds Rate

Wednesday June 17, 2:30pm – USD FOMC Press Conference

Wednesday June 17, 6:45pm – NZD GDP q/q

Thursday June 18, 5:15am – EUR Targeted LTRO

Thursday June 18, all day – EUR Eurogroup Meetings

Thursday June 18, 8:30am – USD Core CPI m/m, Unemployment Claims, Current Account

Thursday June 18, 10:00am – USD Philly Fed Manufacturing Index