USD/JPY Poised to Breakdown Below Short-Term Uptrend

USD/JPY (daily chart as of March 3, 2014) broke down below a short-term uptrend line on February 27 with a strong bearish candlestick, followed by another candlestick that had a long upper shadow attached to its rather small real body. Note that the pair has been under pressure below the 102.85 mark (January 13 low) and trading in a zigzag pattern against the daily EMA 100 for about a month.

Current price is poised to breakout of a consolidation range (from February 4 to 26) to resume the prior downtrend started in early January, if it is unable to reverse up above the daily EMA 100. Immediate support is around the 100.75 area, which is the February 4 low and also close to the daily EMA 200. Any upside movement should be limited, as long as 102.85 serves as strong resistance.

Support levels below:
1st support: 101.35 (February 16 low)
2nd support: 100.75 (February 4 low) or daily EMA 200
3rd support: 99.60 (November 18, 2013 low)

Resistance levels above:
1st resistance: 102.30 (February 28 high) or daily EMA 100
2nd resistance: 102.85 (major resistance level)
3rd resistance: 103.40 (January 28 high)