EUR/USD (daily chart as of March 5, 2014) touched a high of
1.3823 on February 28 with a long bullish candlestick after it traded through
the daily EMA 50 (arrow on chart). However, the candlesticks from February 28
to March 4 (gray shadow on chart) looked quite bearish with a combination of
several bearish patterns, including the bearish harami, bearish engulfing,
and gravestone doji. Plus, the first candlestick engulfed the entire trading
range of all the following three candlesticks.
The market is in light trading awaiting the ECB decision and
the U.S. job data. As of this writing, the pair is climbing higher and poised
to test the resistance of 1.3780/3800, which is the session high of the
gravestone doji on March 4. If it is unable to break out of 1.3800, that would
confirm the mentioned bearish patterns and price could fall to test the daily
EMA 50 again, and then potentially the daily EMA 100 and EMA 200.
Support levels below:
1st support: daily EMA 50
2nd support: 1.3640 (February 27 low) or daily EMA 100
3rd support: daily EMA 200
Resistance levels above:
1st resistance: 1.3780/3800 (March 4 high)
2nd resistance: 1.3820 (February 28 high)
3rd resistance: 1.3890 (December 27, 2013 high)
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