USD/JPY Trading Below Short-Term Downtrend Line

USD/JPY (daily chart as of August 6, 2013) retreated from 100.00 on August 2, close to a short-term downtrend line connecting the May 22 high, the July 8 high, the July 19 high, and the July 25 high. The downtrend line becomes more significant with the August 2 retreat, which is the fifth session high at the trend line. The daily MACD is making a bearish crossover below zero, and the RSI is falling from 50.

If price respects the downtrend line, it could find support at the following levels.

1^st support: 97.50/60 (50% Fibo retracement, close to the lows from July 29 to July 31)
2^nd support: 96.70 (61.8% Fibo retracement; March 12 high, and also close to the May 1 and June 25 low of 97.00)

3^rd support: 95.70 (June 14 and June 18 high; April 16 low)

The pair needs to break above the downtrend line for more upside momentum, and needs to clear 101.50 to resume its uptrend move.

1^st resistance: 100.00 (key resistance/support level)

2^nd resistance: 100.85 (July 19 high)

3^rd resistance: 101.50 (July 8 high)