Friday, April 25, 2014

EUR/USD Finds Support at Daily EMA 50

EUR/USD (daily chart as of April 25, 2014) tested the support of the daily EMA 50 on April 21, 22, and 24 (green arrow on chart). Price then once again breaks out above 1.3820 to test the short-term downtrend line 3. Note that 1.3820 is an important level to watch. It has been acting as key resistance since October 2013 (red arrows on chart).

Note also that there were several spikes that overshot 1.3820 (gray shadows on chart) in the past four months. The first one occurred on December 27 in 2013 with a shooting star candlestick pattern that had a very long upper shadow attached to a rather small real body. Price then tumbled until it found support at the daily EMA 200.

The second spike occurred from March 6 to 19. Price hovered over 1.3820 for about two weeks before finally breaking down below it on March 20. The third one was from March 24 and 25, followed by a decline that stopped right below the daily EMA 100. The fourth spike occurred from April 9 to 17, and it appears that another one is in the making right now, if price is unable to break above line 3 and fails to hold 1.3820 again.

The currency pair is still trading in a large rising wedge between two trend lines (line 1 and line 2), which is a potential bearish pattern after an uptrend move. Trend line 2 overlaps with the daily EMA 200 (bold green moving average line), which makes the support more significant. Within the large rising wedge, the pair is also trading in a small triangle range between two short-term trend lines (line 3 and line 4).

Support levels below:
1st support: daily EMA 50
2nd support: daily EMA 100
3rd support: line 4, line 2 or daily EMA 200

Resistance levels above:
1st resistance: line 3
2nd resistance: 1.3905 (April 11 high)
3rd resistance: 1.3966 (March 13 high)

No comments:

Post a Comment