USD/JPY (daily chart as of December 26, 2013) has managed to stay above the medium-term target of 103.70 for six trading sessions. There was a retest of that level on December 23, but price immediately bounced off to trade higher by reaching a fresh high today. Note that we are in the relatively light holiday trading sessions, and any major price movements need to be confirmed after trading activities get back to normal.
The currency pair has been trading well above the daily EMA 20 (bold green moving average line on chart) since the breakout above the large trading range (bold blue converging lines) on November 8, indicating a directional move after the break. Note how price respected the EMA 20 on December 18 (red arrow on chart), with a very strong bullish candlestick that recovered all of the losses in the previous three trading sessions, and booked a fresh high of 104.35.
As long as price can hold the daily EMA 20, recent directional movement could continue and the strong prior uptrend may resume, with a potential first target at the monthly EMA 200 that has been serving as major resistance since 1998. However, if price is unable to stay above the daily EMA 20, more consolidation should be expected ahead.
Support levels below:1st support: daily EMA 20
2nd support: 101.60 (December 6 low)
3rd support: 100.60 (September 11 high)
Resistance levels above:
1st resistance: 104.60 (December 20 high)
2nd resistance: monthly EMA 200
3rd resistance: 110.65 (August 1, 2008 high)
No comments:
Post a Comment