Wednesday, September 25, 2013

EUR/USD Consolidates Above Key 1.3450


EUR/USD (daily chart as of September 25, 2013) broke out above the long-term downtrend line (bold red line on the chart) with a very strong bullish candlestick on September 18. However, it is far too early to tell at this point if the currency pair has changed from a lengthy trading range that started from April 2008 to an uptrend resumption. Long-term trend line breakout requires the confirmation from the long-term time frame.

It appears that price is currently consolidating the recent surge with a possible flag continuation pattern, and testing the key resistance/support level at around 1.3450. If it can hold 1.3450, price could retest 1.3570, followed by a potential test of 1.3710, or the upper edge of the uptrend channel (bold blue parallel lines). If price fails to hold 1.3450, the support levels below are 1.3415 (June 18 high), and 1.3325 (September 17 low) or the long-term downtrend line.

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